In the past month, The Conference Board has noted that only 30% of CEOs expect a recession soon, a BlueGrace index tracking logistics firms’ confidence had just 15% thinking revenues will fall late this year and equipment finance pros said they were the most upbeat they’ve been since early 2022.

The Fed’s imminent rate cuts have a lot to do with those upbeat sentiments, as do real-time GDP indicators showing growth remains around 2%. Still, I’m starting to pay a lot more attention to comments about capex decisions being put on hold until after November’s election. Sporadic during the heart of Q2 earnings season, they’re surfacing more often lately—with executives either saying they’re OK holding off for a bit or noting that some of their customers are pushing pause.

If a lot of other leaders decide to do the same, sentiment indicators—and the spending they shape—will have just one way to go.

— Geert De Lombaerde