A year ago, we posed seven questions—each a lens into the complex web of political, economic, social, technological and environmental forces shaping our world. The events of 2024 offered answers, though often not the ones we hoped for. As President Trump (re)takes office, we reflect on these disruptions and the future they foreshadow.
1. Will the post-WWII trading system break down?
The end certainly appears to be near, as the global trading system suffered major setbacks in 2024. President Trump has proposed sweeping tariffs—though not, as threatened, on Inauguration Day—that signal a profound shift toward protectionism and an end to U.S. leadership in free trade.
U.S. trading partners—notably Canada, the EU, and China—are preparing retaliatory measures that could accelerate a broader decoupling that is already underway. With trade increasingly seen as a tool of industrial and foreign policy, global supply chains face massive disruption. China’s $1 trillion trade surplus further strains the system. The recent Nippon Steel-US Steel dispute exemplifies a broader trend of trade becoming a flashpoint in domestic and international politics. If a tariff spiral does ensue, the indirect spillover effects would likely be significant as well. For instance, reduced Chinese access to the U.S. market could flood the EU and Latin America with excess capacity instead, triggering additional defensive measures to protect local industries.
Beyond tariffs, national security concerns are increasingly weaponized to block trade and investment, with governments continually expanding their list of strategically important sectors.
2. Will geopolitical instability and military conflicts deepen and spread?
The world remains on edge. Geopolitical risks are becoming more urgent and complex, underscoring a shift toward greater instability and conflict. Multilateral institutions struggle to mediate effectively, leaving nations to prioritize their own security over economic cooperation.
Ukraine, trapped in an existential defensive struggle, fears support from its allies is waning as Russia chips away at Western unity. NATO and the European Union, weakened by recent elections, lack cohesion. The incoming Trump administration’s stance will be critical; a firmer U.S. position might deter Russian aggression but risks escalating tensions. Meanwhile, reduced U.S. financial support would force Europe to shoulder more of the financial and military burden – a commitment that may prove to be politically and/or economically infeasible.
In the Middle East, the outlook is similarly bleak. Recent ceasefires in Lebanon and Gaza provide only temporary relief, while the collapse of Syria’s Assad regime leaves a dangerous power vacuum. Iran’s suddenly weakened position heightens tensions with Israel and Saudi Arabia, which could draw in the U.S. and other Western powers.
In Asia, tensions between the U.S. and China are poised to escalate, driven by conflicts over economic policies, technological dominance and national security. At the same time, North Korea has materially deepened its political and military ties with Russia. In addition, conflict over Taiwan, while still unlikely, cannot be ruled out completely.
Across Africa, unresolved conflicts continue to smolder, threatening regional stability. Even North America feels the strain, with President Trump’s hardline policies on trade and immigration and grand ambitions for expansion amplifying uncertainty and undermining a sense of stability closer to home.
3. Will the Chinese economy get stuck indefinitely?
The Chinese economy, long the juggernaut of global growth, continued to struggle in 2024, as its traditional growth engines – exporting light manufactured goods and capital investment – stalled. The prospect of another U.S.-China trade war compounds these challenges, deterring foreign investment and disrupting supply chains. China’s continuing economic challenges, coupled with its prioritization of national security and political stability, leave Beijing preoccupied with domestic challenges. The result is a world further fragmented, with fewer opportunities for much-needed multilateral collaboration.
4. Will the forces of populism and nationalism strengthen?
Populism surged in 2024, reshaping political landscapes worldwide. Polarization hardened societal divisions, influencing policy decisions. In Germany, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) and far-left Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) gained ground, reflecting populism’s broad appeal. Similar shifts unfolded in, for example, France and The Netherlands.
In the United States, meanwhile, Donald Trump’s return to the White House marks a decisive shift toward right-wing populism. A new and troubling development is the growing coordination among populist leaders across borders, signaling an erosion of democratic norms. Populism is no longer a reaction—it has become a governing force.
5. Will governments be able to “bound” AI and Big Tech?
Efforts to regulate AI and Big Tech have largely stalled. Despite lawsuits and proposed frameworks, the pace of technological advancement and political dynamics have kept meaningful regulation at bay. Many governments, wary of stifling economic growth, remain hesitant to impose significant restrictions.
The Trump administration’s tech-friendly stance dismisses existential risks in favor of economic priorities. Even the EU, traditionally a leader, shows signs of regulatory fatigue, focusing instead on immediate concerns like sustainability and labor-market disruption. Meanwhile, the U.S.-China tech rivalry deepens, entrenching a bifurcated technological landscape. Without effective oversight, the future of AI will increasingly be shaped by corporate interests rather than public policy. Control may no longer lie with governments but with tech titans intent on shaping the future according to their own vision.
6. Will the transition away from fossil fuels be derailed?
President Trump certainly hopes so. Plans to expand fossil fuel production and roll back clean power and electric vehicle subsidies threaten to slow the U.S.’s energy transition. The battle over California’s emission standards could define the next chapter in America’s climate policy.
Internationally, the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and shifting political priorities risk stalling global climate change efforts. However, technological innovation and economic factors, such as declining renewable energy costs, suggest that clean energy adoption will continue, albeit with the U.S. lagging behind China and Europe.
7. Is it time to transition from climate change mitigation to adaptation?
The planet continues to heat up faster than climate models predicted even a few years ago —2024 set a record, with temperatures 1.6°C above pre-industrial levels. The 2.0°C threshold now feels unattainable, forcing a shift in focus. Environmental problems, from extreme weather to pollution, are here now and the need to implement solutions is urgent. Adaptation is no longer optional; it’s essential. From rethinking infrastructure to recalibrating insurance models, the future lies in learning to live with the new climate reality. The challenge now is not merely to fight climate change but to survive it.
What’s Ahead for the C-Suite
For C-Suite executives, the events of 2024 underscore the need to rethink strategies and embed organizational robustness, resilience, and agility as a core business imperative. Investment in strategic foresight and risk management capabilities is a must. In addition, geopolitical upheaval demands a flexible footprint, with supply chains and market exposures adjusted to mitigate risks. Global firms will also need to navigate divergent sets of regulations in different, fragmenting parts of the world.
In conclusion, 2024 did clarify each of the questions we posed a year ago, but the answers suggest a world marked by even higher levels of volatility, uncertainty, risks, opportunities, and, above all, profound change. For some, simply preparing for the future will suffice; others will aim to actively shape it themselves.
This article originally appeared in the C-Suite newsletter. It is used with permission.
