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Business Economists Lower Their Outlook for 2016

June 8, 2016
Economists with the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) have lowered their outlook for 2016 in their latest quarterly survey.

Economists with the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) have lowered their outlook for 2016 in their latest quarterly survey. Respondents predict that the U.S. economy will grow by 1.8 percent in 2016, down from 2.5 percent in the March survey. At the same time, they expect real GDP growth of 2.3 percent in 2017, unchanged from the prior release. One of the larger drivers of the weaker-than-desired growth rates for this year was business fixed investment, which was not seen growing in this survey, down from 4.7 percent growth at the annual rate six months ago and 2.5 percent in the prior estimate. This is consistent with the caution seen in other economic indicators.

Consumer spending was also seen slowing somewhat, down from an annualized 3.0 percent growth in December to 2.6 percent now, even as it continued to expand modestly. At the same time, residential investment should remain a bright spot, increasing 9.6 percent this year, up from 8.3 percent in the prior survey. Housing starts were predicted to grow to 1.21 million units by year’s end, slowing from the 1.24 million outlook seen three months ago.

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ShopFloor is the blog of the National Association of Manufacturers (NAM).

About the Author

Chad Moutray | Chief Economist, National Association of Manufacturers

Chad Moutray is chief economist for the National Association of Manufacturers, where he serves as the NAM’s economic forecaster and spokesperson on economic issues. He frequently comments on current economic conditions for manufacturers through professional presentations and media interviews and has appeared on various news outlets. In addition, he is the director of the Center for Manufacturing Research at The Manufacturing Institute, the workforce development and education partner of the NAM, where he leads efforts to produce thought leadership, data and analysis of relevance to business leaders in the sector.

Prior to joining the NAM, Mr. Moutray was the chief economist and director of economic research for the Office of Advocacy at the U.S. Small Business Administration from 2002 to 2010. In that role, he was responsible for researching the importance of entrepreneurship to the U.S. economy and highlighting various issues of importance to small business owners, policymakers and academics. In addition to discussing economic and policy trends, his personal research focused on the importance of educational attainment to both self-employment and economic growth.

Prior to working at the SBA, Mr. Moutray was the dean of the School of Business Administration at Robert Morris College in Chicago (now part of Roosevelt University). Under his leadership, the business school had rapid growth, both adding new programs and new campuses. He began the development of an M.B.A. program that began accepting students after his departure and created a business institute for students to work with local businesses on classroom projects and internships.

Mr. Moutray is the vice chair of the Conference of Business Economists, and he is a former board member of the National Association for Business Economics, where he is the co-chair of the Manufacturing Roundtable. He is also the former president and chairman of the National Economists Club, the local NABE chapter for Washington, D.C.

He holds a Ph.D. in economics from Southern Illinois University at Carbondale and bachelor’s and master’s degrees in economics from Eastern Illinois University. He is a Certified Business Economist™, where he was part of the initial graduating class in 2015.

In 2014, he received the Outstanding Graduate Alumni Award from EIU, and in 2015, he accepted the Alumnus Achievement Award from Lake Land College in Mattoon, Illinois, where he earned his associate degree in business administration. He serves on the external economics advisory board for the SIUC’s School of Analytics, Finance and Economics.

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