Study: Substantial Revaluation Of Yuan Inevitable

Aug. 31, 2005
As Chinese President Hu Jintao gets ready to visit the U.S. next week, the Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI is saying China's rapidly growing trade surplus will lead to a substantial revaluation of the yuan, the Asian nation's currency. China's merchandise ...

As Chinese President Hu Jintao gets ready to visit the U.S. next week, the Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI is saying China's rapidly growing trade surplus will lead to a substantial revaluation of the yuan, the Asian nation's currency.

China's merchandise trade surplus with the rest of the world will more than quadruple this year to $140 billion and China's current account surplus, a broader measure of its international economic position, will reach $180 billion, predicts Ernest Preeg, senior fellow in trade and productivity at the alliance, an Arlington, Va.-based business and public policy research group. Looking at those numbers, Preeg concludes previous estimates that the yuan was undervalued by 25% to 50% were way too low and foresees an inevitable and large revaluation of yuan. "A 50% revaluation of the yuan is not excessive by historical standards," he says.

For more than two years, U.S. manufacturers, among others, have been pressuring the Bush administration to pressure China to revalue its currency to better reflect the true costs of production. China began a carefully controlled "float" of its currency this summer, following a 2.1% revaluation. But it remains to be seen just how much of a difference that will make to U.S. manufacturers.

About the Author

John McClenahen | Former Senior Editor, IndustryWeek

 John S. McClenahen, is an occasional essayist on the Web site of IndustryWeek, the executive management publication from which he retired in 2006. He began his journalism career as a broadcast journalist at Westinghouse Broadcasting’s KYW in Cleveland, Ohio. In May 1967, he joined Penton Media Inc. in Cleveland and in September 1967 was transferred to Washington, DC, the base from which for nearly 40 years he wrote primarily about national and international economics and politics, and corporate social responsibility.
      
      McClenahen, a native of Ohio now residing in Maryland, is an award-winning writer and photographer. He is the author of three books of poetry, most recently An Unexpected Poet (2013), and several books of photographs, including Black, White, and Shades of Grey (2014). He also is the author of a children’s book, Henry at His Beach (2014).
      
      His photograph “Provincetown: Fog Rising 2004” was selected for the Smithsonian Institution’s 2011 juried exhibition Artists at Work and displayed in the S. Dillon Ripley Center at the Smithsonian Institution in Washington, D.C., from June until October 2011. Five of his photographs are in the collection of St. Lawrence University and displayed on campus in Canton, New York.
      
      John McClenahen’s essay “Incorporating America: Whitman in Context” was designated one of the five best works published in The Journal of Graduate Liberal Studies during the twelve-year editorship of R. Barry Leavis of Rollins College. John McClenahen’s several journalism prizes include the coveted Jesse H. Neal Award. He also is the author of the commemorative poem “Upon 50 Years,” celebrating the fiftieth anniversary of the founding of Wolfson College Cambridge, and appearing in “The Wolfson Review.”
      
      John McClenahen received a B.A. (English with a minor in government) from St. Lawrence University, an M.A., (English) from Western Reserve University, and a Master of Arts in Liberal Studies from Georgetown University, where he also pursued doctoral studies. At St. Lawrence University, he was elected to academic honor societies in English and government and to Omicron Delta Kappa, the University’s highest undergraduate honor. John McClenahen was a participant in the 32nd Annual Wharton Seminars for Journalists at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania in Philadelphia. During the Easter Term of the 1986 academic year, John McClenahen was the first American to hold a prestigious Press Fellowship at Wolfson College, Cambridge, in the United Kingdom.
      
      John McClenahen has served on the Editorial Board of Confluence: The Journal of Graduate Liberal Studies and was co-founder and first editor of Liberal Studies at Georgetown. He has been a volunteer researcher on the William Steinway Diary Project at the Smithsonian Institution, Washington, D.C., and has been an assistant professorial lecturer at The George Washington University in Washington, D.C.
      

 

Sponsored Recommendations

Voice your opinion!

To join the conversation, and become an exclusive member of IndustryWeek, create an account today!