For the past five years, we have possibly experienced the worst disruption in a long time. Between COVID, supply chain disruption, and inflation, it was a rough ride. Are you out of the severe turbulence area? Nobody knows for sure.
As a realist, I want to believe it is smooth sailing from here. But the last 10 years have taught us that more stuff is about to happen.
On the positive side, the last disruptions forced organizations to increase resilience and agility. Some companies did better through disruption and used the opportunity to go back to their core and focus on big bets. As Churchill would say, “never let a good crisis go to waste.”
In reality, most companies were mostly reactive, struggled through COVID and are still feeling the aftershocks years later.
There is more disruption coming our way. Let us be honest with each other. Disruption never ends. What changes is the intensity of the disruption and the nature of disruption.
For those of you who are new to the concept of disruption, it is defined as “a disturbance or problems which interrupt an event, activity, or process” (dictionary.com).
The key words in this definition are “interrupt” and “activities.” Disruption interrupts businesses from accomplishing their core missions.
I propose three categories of disruption leadership teams should pay attention to:
1. Current disruption we are experiencing: We are in the middle of the firefight and in mitigation mode. In this category, it is too late to anticipate; you have to get in action and troubleshooting mode. Current disruptions include currency war, trade tariffs, geopolitical conflicts, piracy and cybersecurity risks. Hopefully, you are on top of things and “cruising” through the turbulence.
2. Future disruption we can anticipate: You could argue this is not true disruption according to the definition. But it might still radically impact your business processes and fundamentals. The key at this stage is that you do not have the solutions to the potential issues ahead. You are in introspection and analysis mode. You engage with experts, consultants, or scholars to create the solutions drawing from innovation, technology or business process improvement, for example. This is often called mega-trends analysis that is part of strategic innovation and risk management strategy.
So, what can we anticipate? Experts predict catastrophic climate events, severe scarcity of materials due to protectionism and conflicts, severe intentional disruption and sabotage of the internet infrastructure, and large-scale war. Anticipation is key. So is preparation and early mitigation.
3. Unpredictable disruption: COVID was not predictable. The medical community and the WHO (World Health Organization) mentioned the risk but never thought it would materialize. Well, it did. And it was bad for people and for business. It is impossible to prepare for unpredictable disruption. What is possible is to increase resilience and agility to be able to withstand any disruption.
Why is it that some companies resisted well and adapted quickly from the COVID crisis and others not? Why is it that some companies in the same industry had different performance levels during the inflation period? It is a question of strategy, culture and mindset. A company that is average to its core might not survive any disruption. There is no margin for error.
Managing and anticipating disruption is the new mindset of the future. That does not mean you have to become Mr. or Ms. Doomsday. It means you need pay attention, have your senses activated and escape from business as usual. This is called organizational mindfulness. It means that when the next bit crisis is coming, your organization is going to be better equipped to respond and react. It is all about being proactive and a bit less reactive. So—ask yourself the following five questions:
- What have we learned from the past five years’ disruption?
- Do we have a process in place to identify and anticipate mega trends?
- Are we paying enough attention to signals in and out of our industry?
- Are we having candid conversations about potential future disruptive events?
- Do we have plans in place to improve our resilience in case of catastrophic events?
Being proactive means creating internal mini-crises and make necessary changes without being forced to do them by disruptive events. So, in essence, it is about self-disruption to avoid being disrupted.
Trust me when I say this: change is the only constant. Disruption is coming. Will you be ready for it?
