General Motors Corp. leaders expect that losses from the company’s electric-vehicle operations will shrink by about $2 billion this year, the low end of a range they forecasted last fall.
CFO Paul Jacobson in October said the GM team was looking for its EV losses to shrink between $2 billion and $4 billion this year versus 2024 as the Detroit-based auto giant benefits from scale and efficiencies in both auto and battery production. Speaking to analysts and investors on a Jan. 28 conference call discussing GM’s fourth-quarter results, Jacobson said that number will be much closer to $2 billion in large part because of slower-than-expected volume growth.
GM sold nearly 200,000 EVs in 2024—growing its U.S. market share in the segment to 12.5% from 9.3% in 2023—and Jacobson and CEO Mary Barra say they expect that number to grow to 300,000 this year. But Jacobson said that 300,000 number means improvements to GM’s EV economics will be “coming in a little bit slower and […] lagged in there.” Also contributing to the uncertainty around EV profitability are the Trump administration’s actions—some already completed and others still expected—around tax credits for EV buyers and continued funding for projects under the umbrella of the Inflation Reduction Act.
“There are a lot of moving parts out there,” Jacobson said. “We’ve got multiple playbooks that we have been working on to make sure that we can respond or even anticipate some of these moves […] There are really infinite permutations on policy and we didn’t want to get into advocacy in our guidance.”
GM posted a net loss of nearly $3 billion in the last three months of 2024 but that was due to more than $5 billion in one-time charges, most of them related to the restructuring of the company’s Chinese joint venture and $500 million from the recent decision to stop funding its Cruise robotaxi venture. Adjusted earnings before interest and depreciation came in at $2.5 billion, a more than 40% increase from the same period in 2023, as revenues climbed 11% to $47.7 billion.
For 2025, GM’s leaders are forecasting adjusted EBIT between $13.7 billion and $15.7 billion, roughly in line with the $14.9 billion from last year. Included in that guidance is the assumption that labor costs will rise and overall vehicle prices will slip between 1% and 1.5%. Beyond that, Jacobson noted, the forecast doesn’t include possible impacts from possible tariffs, tax reform or other regulatory changes. Those factors, he added, contributed to a “noisy” January.
“We’re being cautious […] until we see the demand outcome and what some of the market going into 2025 is going to be,” Jacobson said. “I would have probably rather had a cleaner January month to be able to make some of those calls but there’s just been so much noise with the retail environment, with everything going on weather-wise, the inauguration, etcetera.”
Another takeaway from the conference call: Despite abandoning robotaxis, Barra said her team expects that GM will generate $2 billion in annual revenues from subscriptions to its Super Cruise hands-free driving system by 2030. Many Cruise employees are being integrated into GM proper as the company continues to invest in other autonomy and driver-assistance systems.
Shares of GM (Ticker: GM) were down about 10% to $49.40 in midday trading Jan. 28 as investors appeared to not like the uncertainty in executives’ forecasts. Analysts at research firm Bernstein said GM’s full-year guidance “leaves no room for errors.” Over the past six months, the stock is still up more than 10%, leaving GM with a market capitalization of more than $54 billion.
