Believe in the trends

Today’s consensus is that the economy will put in a drab-but-not-negative performance in the second half of this year as near-term investments and purchases postponed in recent months begin to truly drag down data. Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics this week said things are “turning increasingly mushy” and flagged rising inflationary pressures, particularly among small businesses. Nevertheless, the flow of big investment announcements isn’t easing, which will generate many opportunities down the supply chain.

— Geert De Lombaerde

 
• Start-up plans $4.7B campus in North Carolina to make blended-wing jets

• GM announces $4B investment in domestic manufacturing

• UCB to build U.S. biologics facility with $5B economic impact
 

Better planning, better decisions

Amid the continuing noise in the market, in the data and in D.C., it's worth considering that it's becoming more apparent that many of the decisions leaders need to make are tactical rather than strategic. It's crucial, then, to lock down planning and decision-making processes.

 
• 'It's more like a Model UN' – Perfecting your 2026 planning mindset

• An epidemic of corporate caution is gridlocking digital transformation
 

"There's been fears of air pockets and bullwhips
and all that [...] Average it all out and you have seen
probably significantly more steady business over
the course of the last several months than
the sensationalized views and opinions."

That reassurance came from J.B. Hunt senior VP of finance Brad Delco at last week’s 2025 Wells Fargo Industrials & Materials Conference. Here’s to the next few months being as steady—or better—in the aggregate.

 
• ‘The bottom is near’ – Analysts see trucking fleets’ price dynamics improving
 

Is that the inflation bugbear?

Tariffs haven’t yet shown up in earnest among inflation numbers. Indeed, some recent anecdotes have pointed to some suppliers—Chinese firms, in particular—absorbing most of the cost increases. Still, the post-COVID investment boom led by data centers has put pressure on material costs that is becoming ever more unavoidable. As Jim Mayer of MFG Connector says in the first story linked here: “I don't even think we’ve seen the top point of where pricing is going to go for the capital expenditure side of machine tools and things of that nature.”

 
• Construction and location experts say building to avoid tariffs will come with sticker shock

• ‘This isn’t just inflation; it’s fragmentation’ – Navigating tariff policies and changing buyer behavior
 

17.8%

The year-to-date growth from 2024 in the value of U.S. manufacturers' orders for new machining equipment

Compiled by the Association for Manufacturing Technology, this data point is seen as a reliable indicator of future manufacturing activity because it quantifies investments in preparation for new production programs.

 
• Machine tool orders are trending upward and on a run that dates back to October
 

What we'll be watching

In the run-in to the long July 4th weekend, I'll be paying attention to the JPMorgan Energy, Power, Renewables & Mining Conference taking place in New York. Many of the biggest names from the oil-and-gas patch will be discussing their outlook—which may or may not be changing due to the conflict in the Middle East.