Measuring the economic loss of U.S. workers is not a straight forward task.
Research released on May 19 from SHRM (Society for Human Resource Management) and Oxford Economics, estimates that U.S. workers have lost an estimated $1.3 trillion—roughly $8,900 per worker as of late April.
It’s not just those who have been laid off who are losing wages, 20% of this loss represents earnings of those who remain employed. Among individuals who are employed, hourly workers (9%) have seen a reduction in hours and wages while salaried employees (14%) have had a reduction or deferral of pay since the COVID-19 crisis began.
“It’s literally impossible to overstate the magnitude of $1.3 trillion,” said Johnny C. Taylor, Jr., SHRM. “A stack of one million hundred-dollar bills would be 3.3 feet—the height of a chair. A stack of one trillion? That’d tower 631 miles high—2.5 times higher than the International Space Station. But let’s bring it back down to earth because this isn’t just some abstract number: We’re talking about lives and livelihoods. That’s why, hard as it is to look at, leaders need to see this data. This is our reality—and it underscores the urgency with which we must move to safely reopen and return to work.”
To gather and analyze the economic impact of the pandemic the organizations are producing a bi-weekly report called the COVID-19 Business Index.
The combination of high unemployment and reduced income for those still working will have long-term consequences for cities across the country. By the end of 2021, 80% of large cities and 90% of smaller cities will still not have recovered the jobs they lost during the pandemic.”
The metros expected to recover fastest—such as Austin, Raleigh, and San Jose—tend to have a large share of employment in the professional business services and technology sectors. Traditional manufacturing hubs, such as Detroit and Cleveland, aren’t expected to recover to pre-pandemic employment levels for many years to come. By Q4 of 2024, nearly four in 10 smaller metros are still not expected to be recovered to pre-pandemic employment levels.
And nearly four in 10 smaller communities are not expected to recover pre-COVID-19 employment levels by the end of 2024.
“In many communities, it may take years to replace the jobs lost in a matter of weeks,” said Dan Levine, head of the Oxford Economics’ location strategies practice.
